Predictx's Blog

WHU Idealab Impressions

Posted in Uncategorized by predictX on October 31, 2010

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Roadshow is on…

Posted in Off-Topic by predictX on October 22, 2010
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The past 11 days showed us 2 things:

(1) The business model works

(2) The technology works (which in fact was our biggest concern)

Against this background we are noe entering the pitching stage to raise capital for further development.

We will be pitching on the following events:

WHU Idealab,Vallendar, 29-30.20.1010:

Level 3 Pitching,Mannheim, 12.11.2010:

Startup Weekend, Nürnberg, 5-7.11.2010:

LeWeb, Paris, 8-9.2010:

EBSpreneurship Forum 15.10.2010

Posted in Off-Topic by predictX on October 18, 2010
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Without a doubt this event was worth every single of the 800km driving: Excellent speakers, amaizing food and most importantly very insightful (positive) feedback on our project as well as initial investor contacts.

We would like to thank

the EBSpreneurship Forum for organizing

Subway for Catering

Investors/founders for sharing their knowledge and the

EBS for making this event happen.

Next on the agenda: WHU Idealab on 30.10.2010 at Vallendar, Germany

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Posted in Uncategorized by predictX on October 13, 2010

Hey everyone,

time has come: is now online 🙂

What you can do now:

– Sign up, login
– Create, trade, share events
– Show all trading activity in “my portfolio”
– Comment events / create forum discussion
– Provide feedback and receive $500 additional play-money
– Tell others about us

What will follow the next days:
– “Receive XXX” in the trading interface will be changed to show the real $ amount
– User ranking list
– Some improvements in “My portfolio”

Sign up now ( takes 30sec, is 100% free and will keep you informed on future events) and start trading.

Nearly there….Launch on 13.10.2010

Posted in General Announcement by predictX on October 5, 2010

$1000, 5 months and many many sleepless nights finally pay off: PredictX is 80% ready.

What is predictX?
Generally speaking it is a hybrid of derivative trading (the outcome of events), skill gaming (no real money is traded) and youtube (everybody creates content).Users create events that either occur or do not occur (e.g. “Will Marihuana be legal in the European Union before 2020?”).
Users then trade virtual money on this event before the outcome is known. Those who believe the event is more likely than the current propability (e.g. 68%) buy “X will occur” contracts. Users who think the event occurs with a lower propability buy ” X ill not occur” contracts. By buying and selling contracts not only the market price but also your market value of held contracts changes. For instance if you have bought “X will occur” contracts and the propability that „X will occur“ rises you can either sell your trading position or wait until expiry. See our betting rules for examples and strategies.
As soon as the outcome is known each held contract pays off $1 or $0 depending on whether the prediction was correct (= $1 per contract) or incorrect (=$0 per contract).
Where is this going?
The current platform is a testing environment for out trading back-end. It is possible for users to trade at anytime even in markets lacking liquidity for instant order matching. The market maker generated matching offers by factoring in several dynamic parameters such as volumes, volatility and many more. If the technology proves tob e sustainable we will further develop the platform, develop APIs, Apps, integrate moneybookers, paypal etc. and switch to real-money. We provide the platform and take 10% commission.
Who needs this?
Trading: It is possible to trade on events in a more direct and simpler way than through financial derivatives (CFDs, Certificates, Indices). The stock-prices are not influenced by irrelevant other factors like financial assets. Also it can be used for diversification purposes effectively.
Hedging: Imagine you are the CEO of Marlboro and you want to hedge against political risks of a european-wide ban of cigarette advertisement. By creating the event X= „cigarettes will be banned“ you can simply trade that X will happen and receive $1 per contract if this happens.
Creating: Creating an event costs $20 (initial market maker funding) to ensure quality (all events are screened by us). In return, users receive 1% of the total trading volume. This provides the right incentives for users to create events with high trading activity.

Prediction markets have proven to generate more accurate forecasts on future events than single experts, polls or statistical models. Monetary incentives are rewarded for many individuals disclosing their beliefs on an event. The number of traders, insider knowledge and the fact that market prices are denoted in propabilities (e.g. market price per contract 0.76 = 76% propability that event will happen as every contract pays off $1 if correct) lead to predictions on anything. News sites, blogs, social media can easily integrate graphs, information and trading interfaces on other websites.

Where can I read more?

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